Zogby's thoughts about the race
Sep. 18th, 2003 08:45 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
sisyphusshruggedOn the race for the Democratic nomination:
"They (Republicans) may not want to wish too hard (that Howard Dean is the candidate). This is not George McGovern. [Dean] is an NRA member. This is someone who has been a centrist governor.... Does he have what it takes to win the nomination? I don't know. You can't predict that just yet. But there is certainly a high level of intensity (and) support (among) the Dean people and I would suggest that he probably, barring anything unforeseen, has his tickets to the Boston convention. Now the issue I think is who is the other candidate [who will make it all the way to Boston.]."
...
On economic insecurity:
"Let me jump to what I think will be one of the major issues and that is economic insecurity. (We) have asked questions for 10 years, one of which is are you or anyone in your household afraid of losing a job in the next 12 months? It was 11 percent in 1999, it is 22 percent today.... When you ask people earning $75,000 a year or more, those households, it has gone from 9 percent who say they are afraid of losing their job in the next year in 1999 to 24 percent. That kind of insecurity is a difficult thing for an incumbent to overcome, especially if the economy stays the way it is...."
On the California recall election:
"I can't predict what the courts will do but I do think that (Governor Gray) Davis will probably win this."
On whether the war in Iraq will permanently tarnish President Bush:
It is "way too early to say 'permanently tarnish' and way too early to say that it will be forgotten. Where we stand right now, the president is in trouble. The president is in trouble because of the economy and insecurity and the president is in trouble because of the Iraq peace and the sense of a lack of stability in the region."
Always interesting to hear from the guy with the raw data, don't you think?
Zogby tends to slant right.
This is not good for Bush.
"They (Republicans) may not want to wish too hard (that Howard Dean is the candidate). This is not George McGovern. [Dean] is an NRA member. This is someone who has been a centrist governor.... Does he have what it takes to win the nomination? I don't know. You can't predict that just yet. But there is certainly a high level of intensity (and) support (among) the Dean people and I would suggest that he probably, barring anything unforeseen, has his tickets to the Boston convention. Now the issue I think is who is the other candidate [who will make it all the way to Boston.]."
...
On economic insecurity:
"Let me jump to what I think will be one of the major issues and that is economic insecurity. (We) have asked questions for 10 years, one of which is are you or anyone in your household afraid of losing a job in the next 12 months? It was 11 percent in 1999, it is 22 percent today.... When you ask people earning $75,000 a year or more, those households, it has gone from 9 percent who say they are afraid of losing their job in the next year in 1999 to 24 percent. That kind of insecurity is a difficult thing for an incumbent to overcome, especially if the economy stays the way it is...."
On the California recall election:
"I can't predict what the courts will do but I do think that (Governor Gray) Davis will probably win this."
On whether the war in Iraq will permanently tarnish President Bush:
It is "way too early to say 'permanently tarnish' and way too early to say that it will be forgotten. Where we stand right now, the president is in trouble. The president is in trouble because of the economy and insecurity and the president is in trouble because of the Iraq peace and the sense of a lack of stability in the region."
Always interesting to hear from the guy with the raw data, don't you think?
Zogby tends to slant right.
This is not good for Bush.
